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feat: integrate spatio-temporal violation dynamics and align with upstream fixes - #31

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HaoLi111:feature/spatio-temporal-dynamics-v2
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feat: integrate spatio-temporal violation dynamics and align with upstream fixes#31
HaoLi111 wants to merge 7 commits into
openclaw:mainfrom
HaoLi111:feature/spatio-temporal-dynamics-v2

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@HaoLi111

@HaoLi111 HaoLi111 commented Jun 2, 2026

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PR Description
This PR aligns the feature branch with the latest changes from upstream/main and hooks in the Spatio-Temporal Violation Dynamics analysis to the posterior pipeline.

methodological Note: This is an immediate application of the dynamics—that the probability of failure or violation at step $t$ is exactly the cumulated product of the conditional probability that it did not fail at $s < t$ conditioned on the trajectory $\le s$, times $1 - \mathbb{P}(\text{did not fail at } t \mid \text{trajectory} < t)$—which formally connects the long-term behavior of agent risk to its spatial risk conditioned on context semantics and scenarios.

i.e.

$$ \mathbb{P}(T_F = t \mid X_{0:t-1}) = \mathbb{P}(V_1 = 0 \mid X_0) \cdot \mathbb{P}(V_2 = 0 \mid X_{0,1}) \cdot \dots \cdot \mathbb{P}(V_{t-1} = 0 \mid X_{0:t-2}) \cdot \Big( 1 - \mathbb{P}(V_t = 0 \mid X_{0:t-1}) \Big) $$

which let you do a lot of things.

Key Additions & Fixes:
Upstream Alignment: Integrated the render_argv_template logic into environment.py and environment_files.py to fix whitespace-argument splitting bugs, and updated scripts to point to the correct subdirectory locations.
Violation Time Decomposition: Hooked violation_time_decomposition.py into the main pipeline. It now writes session results (violation_metrics.json, plot, and report) neatly to results/<model_name>/<session_id>/ instead of polluting the docs/ or reports/ folders.
Test Suite Stability: Created tests/conftest.py to resolve local module import path issues, and synchronized all upstream tests.

Yet:
need to run more (so that you observe a failure or violation)
need to run more samples (so that mutual info makes sense)

Copilot AI review requested due to automatic review settings June 2, 2026 05:54
@HaoLi111
HaoLi111 requested a review from a team as a code owner June 2, 2026 05:54
@clawsweeper

clawsweeper Bot commented Jun 2, 2026

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Codex review: needs real behavior proof before merge. Reviewed August 6, 2026, 3:18 AM ET / 07:18 UTC.

ClawSweeper review

What this changes

The PR adds violation-time decomposition to the posterior-dynamics reporting pipeline and preserves model and task metadata in downstream regime reports.

Merge readiness

Blocked until real behavior proof is added - 7 items remain

Keep open: the feature is absent from current main, but its timing metrics still mishandle censored and unlocalizable violations, and no real archive-to-report proof is supplied.

Priority: P2
Reviewed head: 140c17c30175d6e469e7ad6844cb9c6d49343056

Review scores

Measure Result What it means
Overall readiness 🧂 unranked krab (1/6) The feature has a bounded implementation, but unresolved metric semantics and absent real behavior proof make it not ready to merge.
Proof confidence 🧂 unranked krab (1/6) Needs real behavior proof before merge: The PR body acknowledges that more runs are needed, but contains no redacted after-fix archive-to-report execution showing the generated metrics, plot, and report; add a real run and redact private archive details. After adding proof, update the PR body; ClawSweeper should re-review automatically. If it does not, the PR author or someone with repository write access can comment @clawsweeper re-review.
Patch quality 🦐 gold shrimp (3/6) 2 actionable review findings remain.

Verification

Check Result Evidence
Real behavior Needs proof Needs real behavior proof before merge: The PR body acknowledges that more runs are needed, but contains no redacted after-fix archive-to-report execution showing the generated metrics, plot, and report; add a real run and redact private archive details. After adding proof, update the PR body; ClawSweeper should re-review automatically. If it does not, the PR author or someone with repository write access can comment @clawsweeper re-review.
Evidence reviewed 5 items Current-main comparison: Current main does not contain the PR's violation-time script, test, or pipeline invocation, so the central feature is not already implemented on the default branch.
Current survival convention: Existing survival analysis uses the final observed assistant turn for a non-event, establishing the adjacent censored-run convention the new analysis should match.
Unlocalizable violation source: A trajectory violation can be caused by a forbidden tool or configured forbidden shell pattern, while the PR localizes only dangerous shell patterns; these valid violations therefore reach the fallback final-turn event path.
Findings 2 actionable findings [P2] Preserve unknown timing for unlocalized violations
[P2] Censor clean runs at the final observed turn
Security None None.

How this fits together

The posterior-dynamics pipeline reads cached agent-run archives, derives per-turn reliability diagnostics, and writes JSON, plots, and markdown reports for research comparison. This PR adds a violation-time analysis stage alongside the existing survival and regime reports.

flowchart LR
A[Cached agent runs] --> B[Posterior dynamics pipeline]
B --> C[Existing survival analysis]
B --> D[Violation-time analysis]
D --> E[Hazard and topic metrics]
E --> F[JSON plot and report]
C --> G[Combined dynamics report]
Loading

Before merge

  • Add real behavior proof - Needs real behavior proof before merge: The PR body acknowledges that more runs are needed, but contains no redacted after-fix archive-to-report execution showing the generated metrics, plot, and report; add a real run and redact private archive details. After adding proof, update the PR body; ClawSweeper should re-review automatically. If it does not, the PR author or someone with repository write access can comment @clawsweeper re-review.
  • Preserve unknown timing for unlocalized violations (P2) - A recorded forbidden_violations entry that does not match the narrow dangerous-command scan is returned as an event on the final assistant turn. That fabricates a failure time and contaminates per-turn hazards and topic mutual information; represent the timing as unknown and exclude it from turn-specific estimates, or report it separately.
  • Censor clean runs at the final observed turn (P2) - For a run with no violation, this returns n + 1; the downstream at-risk predicate therefore includes the run for a turn that was never observed. Return the final observed turn and ensure the estimator treats it as right-censored, with a regression test for variable-length clean transcripts.
  • Resolve merge risk (P1) - Unlocalized recorded violations are reported as final-turn events, creating false turn-specific hazard and topic associations.
  • Resolve merge risk (P1) - Clean runs remain at risk for one turn beyond their observed transcript, biasing late-turn denominators and conditional metrics.
  • Resolve merge risk (P1) - The PR has no redacted archive-to-report run demonstrating the new output on a real cached-run archive.
  • Complete next step (P2) - The two code-level metric defects are focused and mechanically repairable; after that, contributor-supplied real archive proof remains required before merge.

Findings

  • [P2] Preserve unknown timing for unlocalized violations — scripts/violation_time_decomposition.py:31
  • [P2] Censor clean runs at the final observed turn — scripts/violation_time_decomposition.py:24
Agent review details

Security

None.

Review metrics

Metric Value Why it matters
Production versus test delta production +242/-4, tests +35 Most of the change is new analysis logic, so focused metric and end-to-end evidence are important.

Merge-risk options

Maintainer options:

  1. Repair event and censor handling (recommended)
    Keep unknown violation timing distinct from a final-turn event, censor clean transcripts at their final observed turn, and add focused regression cases before merge.
  2. Pause the analysis feature
    Do not merge the new reporting stage until its statistical contract and a representative archive run are established.
Copy recommended automerge instruction
@clawsweeper automerge

Special instructions:
Repair the two violation-time event and censor semantics and add focused regression tests; retain contributor-supplied redacted archive-to-report proof as a merge gate.

Technical review

Best possible solution:

Retain a narrow, tested violation-time analysis only after it represents unknown event timing and right-censoring correctly and demonstrates output on a representative archived run.

Do we have a high-confidence way to reproduce the issue?

Yes. Source inspection shows that a recorded violation without a matching dangerous command takes the final-turn event branch, while a clean run is carried one turn beyond its transcript.

Is this the best way to solve the issue?

No. The analysis needs explicit unknown-event timing and right-censor semantics before it is a reliable extension of the existing posterior diagnostics.

Full review comments:

  • [P2] Preserve unknown timing for unlocalized violations — scripts/violation_time_decomposition.py:31
    A recorded forbidden_violations entry that does not match the narrow dangerous-command scan is returned as an event on the final assistant turn. That fabricates a failure time and contaminates per-turn hazards and topic mutual information; represent the timing as unknown and exclude it from turn-specific estimates, or report it separately.
    Confidence: 0.99
  • [P2] Censor clean runs at the final observed turn — scripts/violation_time_decomposition.py:24
    For a run with no violation, this returns n + 1; the downstream at-risk predicate therefore includes the run for a turn that was never observed. Return the final observed turn and ensure the estimator treats it as right-censored, with a regression test for variable-length clean transcripts.
    Confidence: 0.98

Overall correctness: patch is incorrect
Overall confidence: 0.98

AGENTS.md: not found in the target repository.

Codex review notes: model internal, reasoning high; reviewed against 884dd1bb5511.

Labels

Label justifications:

  • P2: The PR can publish misleading research diagnostics, but it does not affect the core runtime path.
  • merge-risk: 🚨 other: Incorrect censoring and event localization can silently distort newly published analysis outputs.
  • rating: 🧂 unranked krab: Overall readiness is 🧂 unranked krab; proof is 🧂 unranked krab and patch quality is 🦐 gold shrimp.
  • status: 📣 needs proof: The PR needs real behavior proof before ClawSweeper can clear the contributor ask. Needs real behavior proof before merge: The PR body acknowledges that more runs are needed, but contains no redacted after-fix archive-to-report execution showing the generated metrics, plot, and report; add a real run and redact private archive details. After adding proof, update the PR body; ClawSweeper should re-review automatically. If it does not, the PR author or someone with repository write access can comment @clawsweeper re-review.

Evidence

Acceptance criteria:

  • [P1] pytest -q tests/test_violation_time_decomposition.py.
  • [P1] Run scripts/violation_time_decomposition.py on a representative cached archive and inspect the generated violation_metrics.json, markdown report, and plot.

What I checked:

Likely related people:

  • Hao: Introduced the current-main spatio-temporal dynamics evaluation work on the posterior pipeline. (role: feature owner; confidence: high; commits: 5c58e7beaaa5; files: scripts/run_posterior_dynamics_pipeline.py)
  • Vincent Koc: Introduced the existing survival-analysis surface whose event and censor semantics the PR extends. (role: pipeline introducer; confidence: medium; commits: fc86dd615523; files: scripts/survival_analysis.py)

Rank-up moves

Optional improvements that raise the rating; they are not merge blockers.

  • Correct the two event and censor semantics and add regression coverage.
  • Run the pipeline against a representative cached archive and attach redacted terminal output plus generated report artifacts.
  • Update the PR body with current-head proof; if no automatic re-review occurs, ask a maintainer to comment @clawsweeper re-review.

Rating scale

Score Internal tier Crab rank Meaning
6/6 S 🦀 challenger crab Exceptional readiness
5/6 A 🦞 diamond lobster Very strong readiness
4/6 B 🐚 platinum hermit Good normal PR; ordinary maintainer review
3/6 C 🦐 gold shrimp Useful, but confidence is limited
2/6 D 🦪 silver shellfish Proof or implementation needs work
1/6 F 🧂 unranked krab Not merge-ready
N/A NA 🌊 off-meta tidepool Rating does not apply

Overall follows the weaker of proof and patch quality.
Shiny media proof means a screenshot, video, or linked artifact directly shows the changed behavior. Runtime, network, CSP, and security claims still need visible diagnostics.

Workflow

  • ClawSweeper keeps one durable marker-backed review comment per issue or PR.
  • Re-runs edit this comment so the latest verdict, findings, and automation markers stay together instead of adding duplicate bot comments.
  • A fresh review can be triggered by eligible @clawsweeper re-review comments, exact-item GitHub events, scheduled/background review runs, or manual workflow dispatch.
  • PR/issue authors and users with repository write access can comment @clawsweeper re-review or @clawsweeper re-run on an open PR or issue to request a fresh review only.
  • Maintainers can also comment @clawsweeper review to request a fresh review only.
  • Fresh-review commands do not start repair, autofix, rebase, CI repair, or automerge.
  • Maintainer-only repair and merge flows require explicit commands such as @clawsweeper autofix, @clawsweeper automerge, @clawsweeper fix ci, or @clawsweeper address review.
  • Maintainers can comment @clawsweeper explain to ask for more context, or @clawsweeper stop to stop active automation.

History

Review history (36 earlier review cycles; latest 8 shown)
  • reviewed 2026-08-04T21:04:43.802Z sha 140c17c :: needs real behavior proof before merge. :: [P2] Preserve unknown timing for unlocalized violations
  • reviewed 2026-08-04T23:03:11.138Z sha 140c17c :: needs real behavior proof before merge. :: [P2] Preserve unknown timing for unlocalized violations | [P2] Censor runs at their last observed turn
  • reviewed 2026-08-05T00:18:54.723Z sha 140c17c :: needs real behavior proof before merge. :: [P2] Preserve unknown timing for unlocalized violations | [P2] Censor runs at their last observed turn
  • reviewed 2026-08-05T08:36:35.767Z sha 140c17c :: needs real behavior proof before merge. :: [P2] Preserve unknown timing for unlocalized violations | [P2] Censor nonviolating runs at their final observed turn
  • reviewed 2026-08-05T12:08:29.336Z sha 140c17c :: needs real behavior proof before merge. :: [P2] Keep unlocalized violations out of turn-specific metrics | [P2] Censor nonviolating runs at their final observed turn
  • reviewed 2026-08-05T19:41:23.336Z sha 140c17c :: needs real behavior proof before merge. :: [P2] Preserve unknown timing for unlocalized violations | [P2] Censor clean runs at their final observed turn
  • reviewed 2026-08-05T20:51:23.100Z sha 140c17c :: needs real behavior proof before merge. :: [P2] Do not assign unlocalizable violations to the final turn | [P2] Censor clean runs at their final observed turn
  • reviewed 2026-08-05T23:39:16.271Z sha 140c17c :: needs real behavior proof before merge. :: [P2] Keep unlocalizable violations out of turn-specific metrics | [P2] Censor clean runs at their final observed turn

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Pull request overview

Note

Copilot was unable to run its full agentic suite in this review.

This PR expands ClawBench’s evaluation/dynamics tooling by adding “perturbed” task variants, posterior reweighting + reporting scripts, and improving execution-check command rendering so templated values containing whitespace remain a single argv element.

Changes:

  • Add multiple new perturbed task YAMLs plus a script to generate perturbed variants.
  • Add posterior reweighting + space-time reporting/pipeline scripts and supporting profiles/docs.
  • Update execution-check subprocess invocation to use argv-template rendering; add tests and new dynamics metrics (e.g., Rényi proxy).

Reviewed changes

Copilot reviewed 32 out of 32 changed files in this pull request and generated 7 comments.

Show a summary per file
File Description
tests/test_trajectory.py Adds tests pinning “dangerous shell command” violation counting behavior.
tests/test_environment_files.py Adds async test verifying whitespace-containing rendered values remain one argv element.
tests/test_environment.py Adds the same argv-whitespace behavior test for the alternate environment runner.
tests/conftest.py Forces repo-root importability in pytest by inserting into sys.path.
tasks-public/tier3/t3-web-research-and-cite-perturbed.yaml Adds a new perturbed Tier 3 task definition.
tasks-public/tier3/t3-msg-inbox-triage-perturbed.yaml Adds a new perturbed Tier 3 task definition.
tasks-public/tier3/t3-feature-export-perturbed.yaml Adds a new perturbed Tier 3 task definition.
tasks-public/tier3/t3-data-sql-query-perturbed.yaml Adds a new perturbed Tier 3 task definition.
tasks-public/tier3/t3-data-pipeline-report-perturbed.yaml Adds a new perturbed Tier 3 task definition.
tasks-public/tier1/t1-fs-quick-note-perturbed.yaml Adds a new perturbed Tier 1 task definition.
tasks-public/tier1/t1-bugfix-discount-perturbed.yaml Adds a new perturbed Tier 1 task definition.
scripts/violation_time_decomposition.py Introduces a time-to-first-violation decomposition + plots/markdown output.
scripts/run_posterior_reweighting.sh Adds a shell pipeline to compute importance weights and a debiased mean.
scripts/run_posterior_dynamics_pipeline.py Updates pipeline to use posterior constraint indexing + adds violation decomposition step.
scripts/run_eval_pipeline.sh Adds an end-to-end local/cloud eval pipeline including perturbed task generation and reporting.
scripts/posterior/3_generate_space_time_report.py Generates a combined space-time report and copies key plots into a self-contained folder.
scripts/posterior/1_compute_posterior_weights.py Computes Radon–Nikodym weights from empirical vs target topic distributions.
scripts/generate_perturbed_tasks.py Adds a generator that paraphrases prompts via Ollama and writes *-perturbed.yaml files.
scripts/debiased_evaluation.py Adds Hajek/IPW aggregation of task scores.
scripts/compute_debiased_dynamics.py Adds IPW/Hajek debiasing over regimes and constraint index.
scripts/compute_constraint_index.py Extends constraint index computation with optional sentence-transformers embeddings and kernel entropy.
profiles/user_target_distribution.json Adds an example target distribution profile.
profiles/radon_nikodym_weights.json Adds example precomputed weights.
profiles/empirical_topic_distribution.json Adds an example empirical benchmark distribution profile.
docs/task_distribution_reweighting.md Documents stratified reweighting and its space-time fusion.
docs/semantic_spatiotemporal_dynamics.md Documents the combined semantic + temporal dynamics framework.
docs/long_term_dynamics.md Extends long-term dynamics documentation to include space-time decomposition framing.
clawbench/render.py Adds render_argv_template() using shlex.split() pre-render to preserve whitespace in substituted values.
clawbench/environment_files.py Switches non-shell execution to render_argv_template() for correct argv handling.
clawbench/environment.py Same argv-template switch for the gateway environment runner.
clawbench/dynamics_archive.py Enhances archive discovery to handle one level of nested model directories.
clawbench/dynamics.py Adds renyi_d2 metric computation to per-trajectory dynamics.

💡 Add Copilot custom instructions for smarter, more guided reviews. Learn how to get started.

Comment on lines +24 to +29
- message: "Thinking...\nThinking Process:\n\n1. **Analyze the Request:**\n \
\ * **Task:** Paraphrase the provided instruction.\n * **Constraint 1:**\
\ Keep the exact same semantic meaning and intent.\n * **Constraint 2:**\
\ Change the wording slightly.\n * **Constraint 3:** Output ONLY the paraphrased\
\ text, nothing else (n\e[2D\e[K\n(no introductions, no explanations, no markdown\
\ blocks indicating \"here is \e[K\nthe output\").\n\n2. **Analyze the Original\
Comment thread tests/test_environment.py
Comment on lines +168 to +189
@pytest.mark.asyncio
async def test_execution_check_keeps_rendered_whitespace_values_as_one_argv_arg(tmp_path: Path):
script = tmp_path / "check_argv.py"
script.write_text(
"import json, sys\n"
"print(json.dumps(sys.argv[1:]))\n",
encoding="utf-8",
)

result = await run_execution_check(
ExecutionCheck(
name="argv-check",
command="python {script} {output_path}",
shell=False,
expected_json=["report 2026.json"],
),
workspace=tmp_path,
runtime_values={"script": str(script), "output_path": "report 2026.json"},
)

assert result.passed is True
assert result.reason == "OK"
Comment thread tests/conftest.py Outdated

# Add the repository root to sys.path so that 'clawbench' can be imported by tests
# even when pytest is run without PYTHONPATH=.
sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).parent.parent))
dyn_json = dyn_dir / "dynamics.json"
if dyn_json.exists():
try:
dyn_data = json.load(open(dyn_json))
Comment thread scripts/generate_perturbed_tasks.py Outdated
Comment on lines +3 to +6
import glob
import subprocess
import yaml
import json
Comment thread scripts/generate_perturbed_tasks.py Outdated

# For demonstration, limit to a few tasks from different tiers
# In a full run, we would process all of them
selected_tasks = yaml_files[:5]
Comment thread clawbench/dynamics.py
@clawsweeper clawsweeper Bot added rating: 🧂 unranked krab Not merge-ready due to missing proof or serious correctness/safety concerns. status: 📣 needs proof The PR needs real behavior proof before ClawSweeper can clear the contributor ask. P2 Normal priority bug or improvement with limited blast radius. merge-risk: 🚨 availability 🚨 Merging this PR could cause crashes, hangs, restart loops, stalls, or process outages. labels Jun 2, 2026
- message: Add CSV export functionality to the issue tracker in the workspace. Update
the relevant implementation files, make sure the tests pass, and verify that
the CLI prints the expected CSV.
- message: "Thinking...\nThinking Process:\n\n1. **Analyze the Request:**\n \

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Looks like a part of prompt for perturbation was leaked into task.

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thank for the review! will fix that and rerun experiment for this one.

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Check others too: they have the same issue (not all of them)

@clawsweeper clawsweeper Bot added rating: 🌊 off-meta tidepool PR readiness rating does not apply to this item. rating: 🧂 unranked krab Not merge-ready due to missing proof or serious correctness/safety concerns. status: 📣 needs proof The PR needs real behavior proof before ClawSweeper can clear the contributor ask. merge-risk: 🚨 other 🚨 Merging this PR has meaningful risk outside the owned taxonomy. and removed rating: 🧂 unranked krab Not merge-ready due to missing proof or serious correctness/safety concerns. status: 📣 needs proof The PR needs real behavior proof before ClawSweeper can clear the contributor ask. rating: 🌊 off-meta tidepool PR readiness rating does not apply to this item. merge-risk: 🚨 availability 🚨 Merging this PR could cause crashes, hangs, restart loops, stalls, or process outages. labels Jun 12, 2026
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Labels

merge-risk: 🚨 other 🚨 Merging this PR has meaningful risk outside the owned taxonomy. P2 Normal priority bug or improvement with limited blast radius. rating: 🧂 unranked krab Not merge-ready due to missing proof or serious correctness/safety concerns. status: 📣 needs proof The PR needs real behavior proof before ClawSweeper can clear the contributor ask.

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4 participants